Section VI: Decision Support Tools (2 of 11)

Important Notes: New methods have been developed that reduce costs by more than 50 percent while maintaining effectiveness and reducing environmental impact.  See Reduced Agent and Area Treatments (RAATs) Brochure. 
Pesticide registrations change frequently.  As of 2004, Acephate is no longer registered while Dimilin is registered by EPA for rangeland grasshopper control. 

VI.2 Hopper, Version 4.0, Users’ Guide: Decision Support System for Rangeland Grasshopper Management

James S. Berry, William P. Kemp, and Jerome A. Onsager

Preface
Introduction
Getting Started
Hopper Lite Version 4.0
Overview of Hopper
The Modules
Selected References
Warning/Hopper Disclaimer/Acknowledgments
Appendix A: How Hopper Works and Why
Appendix B: Descriptions of Hopper’s Ranch Models

Editors note: Although Hopper 4.0 is a DOS based program, it has been modified by USDA-APHIS-PPQ-CPHST to allow easy installation and run on all Windows 2000 and XP machines. Please read the new Hopper overview and installation information, as the information on installing and starting Hopper provided in this chapter is no longer accurate.
View the new Hopper overview
Download Hopper 4.0

Preface

The Users’ Guide Is a Teaching Tool.—The goal is to present you with the most critical information and the most likely scenarios you will encounter using Hopper and Hopper Lite. In this way, you can learn the program fast and be free of the documentation soon.

Use the Guide Even If You Can Run Hopper Without It.—Initially, you should follow this Users’ Guide, even if you intuitively understand how the programs work. The Users’ Guide presents you with the options and situations under which you would use Hopper and Hopper Lite and provides background information to help you understand the data and results.

Hopper and Hopper Lite are simple and intuitive, but the data they require are not. Ranching economics and rangeland ecology are complex. Consequently, while the data are easy to enter, they are sometimes hard to collect and understand. The Users’ Guide provides useful background information and hints to help you learn and use the system correctly. Used properly, Hopper and Hopper Lite will improve the reliability of your treatment decisions.

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Introduction

There are two versions of the Hopper Decision Support Software, “Hopper” and “Hopper Lite.” Hopper Lite is for the infrequent user and could be used without consulting a printed manual. Hopper provides more features and flexibility than Hopper Lite. Consequently, Hopper is more complex and not as simple to use. However, Hopper and Hopper Lite use the same analyses and produce the same results. Each time you start Hopper, you will be asked whether you would like to use Hopper or Hopper Lite.

What Is Hopper?—Hopper and Hopper Lite will allow you to evaluate the validity and cost effectiveness of treating outbreaks of rangeland grasshoppers to protect rangeland in western North America. These analyses are based on the best scientific knowledge currently available. This knowledge represents more than 40 years of research and practical field experience of scientists and field personnel.

Hopper is designed around a menu system that you use to select the options and features you need. On the other hand, Hopper Lite will guide you step-by-step through the treatment selection process. Hopper and Hopper Lite are designed for experienced agriculturalists and resource managers who must make informed treatment decisions. Hopper and Hopper Lite cannot be used to evaluate land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) or protection of crops adjacent to rangeland. In addition, the economic analysis is based on the value of rangeland forage as a food source for free-roaming cattle. Other values, such as long-term resource protection, wildlife, or social impact, are not considered. Hopper does provide some information that a land manager can use to evaluate some of these factors. For example, forage yield may be useful to big-game managers. The analysis allocates reserve forage to be left after grazing (determined by the proper use factor and the Peak Standing Crop parameter). Grasshoppers consume nonreserve forage according to their need. Any remaining nonreserve forage is available to cattle.

Why Use Hopper?—You should use Hopper or Hopper Lite to assist with and improve the reliability of your treatment decisions. Treating grasshopper outbreaks is costly and complicated; you don’t want to waste time and money treating when treatment is not needed.

Treatment decisions are serious business. On the one hand, unneeded treatment wastes money. But failure to treat when treatment is needed may damage the local ranching economy.

Consequently, you want to make the right decision, and you need reliable information to do so. Hopper provides reliability by evaluating your data scientifically.

What Hopper Does.—Hopper and Hopper Lite provide you with a list of treatments and an estimate of cost effectiveness. To provide this information, Hopper asks you for data about your site. Then Hopper analyzes your data using computer models. These models evaluate factors that are critical for making treatment decisions, including many that are otherwise too time consuming for field personnel to consider.

Hopper gives you a benefit–cost ratio (BC) that you can use to help make your decisions. The BC replaces the static treatment thresholds used previously. The BC depends on many factors that change over time and locations (see appendix A, “How Hopper Works and Why”). The BC is based on the benefits and costs incurred during a single year’s operation. The single-year BC does not account for multiyear effects, such as the effect of reduced egg deposit on next year’s grasshopper population density. Hopper can calculate a multiyear BC, compounded from the single-year BC. Also, Hopper does not account for environmental costs or benefits, value of beneficial species, and other nonforage-related values.

In summary, Hopper’s economic evaluations include only the value of forage for livestock consumption in a single season. However, there are many other factors that a rancher may consider in addition to possible multiple-year benefits. One factor is maintenance of the brood herd and long-term survivability and profitability of the operation. A 1-year loss may be acceptable over a 10- year cycle of 9 profitable years.

When the BC is 1.0 or more, treatment is economically justified, and you would treat the outbreak to protect forage. But when the BC is less than 1, treatment is economically unjustified, and you would not treat the outbreak just to protect the current forage crop. The final decision to treat or not depends on Hopper’s analysis and any other factors important to the ranching community and general public.

Thus, by using Hopper, you can include cost effectiveness in the decisionmaking process.

When To Use Hopper versus Hopper Lite.—New users, infrequent users, and managers who need only to evaluate normal treatment scenarios should use Hopper Lite, at least initially. These managers include USDA, APHIS, PPQ personnel. Hopper Lite will direct you, step by step, through Hopper’s essential features to evaluate a potential treatment scenario. The most needed features of Hopper are provided, such as input screens for treatment cost and efficacy and grasshopper information. After becoming familiar with Hopper Lite, frequent users will probably find Hopper easier to use because of its increased flexibility. Also, Hopper provides the opportunity to determine an economic threshold, change additional economic information, create hard-copy data-entry forms, print graphs, configure attached printers, and run a generalized simulation of rangeland grasshoppers. If you need any of these features, you must choose Hopper. However, remember that the analysis in Hopper Lite is the same as Hopper. There is no reason to use Hopper unless you need its additional features.

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Getting Started

System Requirements.—Hopper will run on an IBM™ compatible computer with at least 640 kilobytes (KB) of memory. (A central processing unit 80386, –486, or higher is strongly recommended.) Hopper will probably run

with less memory, but the absolute lower limit is not known. Your computer must be running DOS version 3.1 or higher. A VGA monitor is required to view the hazard maps and graphs of the grasshopper and forage simulation results but is not required for other parts of Hopper. To save and print graphs of Hopper’s simulations for dot matrix and laser printers, 512–1024 KB of expanded memory (EMS) is required. (See the Installation section of your DOS or MS–Windows™ manual to modify your config.sys file with the emm386.exe driver.) You can use a mouse to make selections from menus, but the mouse is not required.

A hard drive is required, and there must be at least 3.5 megabytes (MB) free disk space before Hopper is installed. A math coprocessor will speed the simulations in the economic analysis module by almost a factor of 10. However, the math coprocessor is only recommended, not required.

Installation.—There is a simple program (INSTALL) supplied with Hopper that will guide you through the installation process and install Hopper on your computer’s hard disk. INSTALL will also identify the computer’s hardware so you can verify system requirements. To install Hopper and Hopper Lite, put the Hopper disk in the floppy disk drive. Then type the letter of the floppy disk drive, a colon, and INSTALL (e.g., A:INSTALL); do not type any blank spaces; then press the enter key <ENTER>. Then follow the directions on the screen. Hopper is supplied in an archived format to save diskette space. INSTALL will unarchive the files and copy them to your hard disk. Note: Hopper cannot be installed by simply copying the files to your hard disk. You must use the installation program.

If you have previously installed an older version of Hopper in the \Hopper directory, you may want to erase the old Hopper files from your hard drive (Note: Data files from previous versions and data files (*.fct and *.ec3) are not compatible with the current version). Removing outdated files will free some disk space for future use. You can keep the old version of Hopper, but you will need to specify a directory other than \Hopper when you are prompted by INSTALL. If you attempt to install Hopper into a directory where any files exist, INSTALL can erase the files for you after prompting you for permission. In this case, all previous information you have saved in that directory will be lost.

If you have at least 2 MB of memory on your computer, you can make some of that memory available to Hopper for creating graphs. To add expanded memory for saving and printing simulation graphics for dot matrix and laser printers, add the following line to your config.sys file after the HIMEM.SYS line (if present) or on the first line.

device=c:\dos\emm386.exe 1024

Hopper’s default graphic printer (HPGL/2) does not require this line to be added.

Starting Hopper and Hopper Lite.—After INSTALL finishes installing Hopper to the hard drive, Hopper is ready for use. Typically, Hopper will be located in a directory called C:\Hopper, unless a different drive and directory were specified during installation. Hopper needs to find several of its files while it is running. Therefore, Hopper can be started only from its own directory. To change to the Hopper directory and then to run Hopper, type:

cd\hopper <ENTER>
hopper <ENTER>

This assumes that Hopper was installed in C:\Hopper. If Hopper is started from a menu system, the menu must be programmed to make the Hopper directory the current directory before starting Hopper (similar to the above commands). Each time you start Hopper, you will be asked whether you would like to use Hopper or Hopper Lite.

The User Interface.—In this manual, keystroke commands are in pointed brackets such as <>. The keys are:

<ENTER>...Enter key
<ESC>...Escape key
<DEL>...Delete key
<INSERT>...Insert key
<PageUp>...Page up key
<PageDown>...Page down key
<Down>...Down arrow
<Up>...Up arrow
<Left>...Left arrow
<Right>...Right arrow
<F1>, <F2>...Function keys.

At times, text or numbers must be entered. These will appear in this Users’ Guide without brackets (e.g., 23, some text).

When Hopper or Hopper Lite is started (by typing Hopper <ENTER>, or Hopper MONO <ENTER> if you have a monochrome monitor or monochrome liquid crystal display [LCD] screen), a disclaimer appears and waits for any key to be pressed before continuing. Next, the option to select Hopper or Hopper Lite is presented. If you select Hopper Lite, you will be guided through the treatment selection process. Many of Hopper’s and Hopper Lite’s features and screens are identical. If you choose Hopper, the main menu screen appears (fig. VI.2–1). This screen contains a title window in the center of the screen. Across the top of the screen is a list of main menu items available. (In this text, main menu items are printed in boldface type.) Use the arrow keys (or mouse) to move to a main menu item and then press <ENTER> (or left mouse button) to select that item. When you select one of these main menu items, a submenu of items appears. (Submenu items are always printed in italics.) You can leave any menu or submenu by pressing <ESC>. In fact, pressing <ESC> will allow you to jump out of most areas in Hopper or back up one step.

Figure VI.2–1—Main screen showing the Treatment Selection submenu.

Hopper is operated by using menus, so you do not have to remember complicated commands. Instead, look through the menus to find the desired item and press <ESC> to leave the menu if the item is not found. Also, you can press <F1> at any time to get context-sensitive help information (fig. VI.2–2). Therefore, you do not have to remember commands or syntax. This menu-driven architecture increases the ease of operation of Hopper while maintaining flexibility for you. You are always returned to the main menu after exiting from a submenu.

Figure VI.2–2—Main screen help after pressing <F1> twice to get the Help index.

Some information Hopper needs is entered onto onscreen data-entry forms (fig. VI.2–3). At times you will need to type numbers or dates on a form. Use the tab key <TAB>, <ENTER>, or arrow keys to navigate between the fields on a form. Data within a field on a form can be edited using the delete key <DEL> or arrow keys, and by typing the desired information. Forms are preloaded with default values so that you often do not need to enter much information. Usually you will just change a couple of values on a form.

Figure VI.2–3—Example of the fields in an onscreen data-entry form.

A good way to learn Hopper is to explore the menu system and try the various features. Hopper filters your input so that you can enter appropriate information only. Hopper is designed to be robust so that you can easily explore its capabilities as you learn how to use it.

Technical Support.—For help in using Hopper or Hopper Lite, contact Jim Berry by telephone at (602) 379–6014 between 8:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. (Mountain Standard Time), weekdays. Facsimilies can be sent any time to (602) 379–6005. Send Internet mail to pmdc@xroads.com with “Jim Berry” (minus the quotation marks) in the Subject line.

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Hopper Lite Version 4.0

A Simple Decision Support System for Rangeland Grasshopper Management

Hopper Lite is very easy to use. It asks you questions and controls the whole process to the end. A typical scenario should take about 2 to 10 minutes to complete, depending on the speed of your computer.

Installation.—Hopper Lite is installed automatically with Hopper. Hopper Lite is a subset of Hopper and uses the same files as Hopper.

Operation.—Make the Hopper drive and directory current (e.g., cd\hopper). Then type Hopper <ENTER> to start the program. You will be asked if you would like to use Hopper Lite. Enter Y to select Hopper Lite. Then enter the information requested at each prompt. The arrow keys can be used to highlight an answer; then press <ENTER> to select that answer. Much of this Users’ Guide is contained on the computer and is available by pressing the <F1> key. This information will often provide additional explanation or help each step of the way. Note: To configure your printer or generate hard-copy data-entry forms, you will need to run Hopper.

For the economic analysis, select a data file that corresponds to your situation (e.g., NPH_CC.ec3 for northern high plains cow–calf operation, or a generic model [files with “.gn3” extension] if no models are available for your area or situation). For more information on economic analysis, see the Economics section.

The economic analysis display at the conclusion of the process shows what treatments were selected and benefit–cost ratio (BC) for each. Remember, these results are the same as those provided by Hopper.

You can change the text printers (default = Hewlett– Packard LaserJet™) or graphics printers (default = HPGL™/2) only in Hopper. In addition, Hopper Lite can only save graphs, not print them. Select Print/View Files from the main menu in Hopper to print graphs.

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Overview of Hopper

Summary of Features.—There are four items accessible from the main menu. The first is Treatment Selection. The submenu provides access to an expert system for selecting appropriate treatments and computer models for economic analyses of those treatments. You can easily try different scenarios to evaluate their economic consequences. The computer simulations for forage production, grasshopper population dynamics, and ranch economic linear programming models in version 4.0 of Hopper and Hopper Lite expand this flexibility for evaluating alternative scenarios.

The second main menu item (Print/View Files) will allow you to view on the screen or print any output that VI.2–5.Hopper or Hopper Lite produces. Outputs include reports and data-entry forms. Graphs you save during the economic analysis of treatments can be printed but not viewed.

The third main menu item (Tools) has five submenus. There is an interactive Tutorial designed to teach a new user how to use Hopper. Next, there is a generalized simulation model of grasshopper population dynamics and treatment effects (SimHop). This is useful for demonstrating the effects of several factors on the overall utility of a control program. Maps allows you to select and view rangeland grasshopper hazard maps for several States. These maps are derived, using geostatistical techniques, from surveys of adult grasshoppers in the previous year. Because grasshopper densities are highly correlated with densities 1 year earlier, the maps indicate probable areas of high grasshopper populations. The Economic Threshold submenu item will estimate the grasshopper density necessary to produce a benefit–cost ratio you specify. The last submenu item is Forms, which will allow you to create hard-copy data-entry forms based on an existing economics data file.

The main menu item Setup contains functions to set up printers for text and graphics. Hopper prints graphics indirectly after creating disk files compatible with the graphics printer established in Setup. Once you set up both a text and graphic printer, you will not need to set them up again unless you want to use a different printer. The configuration you specify will be used by both Hopper and Hopper Lite.

Strategy for Use.—The main use for Hopper is to select a list of appropriate treatments and then evaluate their economic utility. The Tutorial in the Tools submenu will demonstrate a typical usage of Hopper. The Tutorial will work fine when Hopper is first installed but may not work properly after you have modified some of Hopper’s data files. The Treatment Selection submenu contains all of the functions for grasshopper control analysis. To develop and evaluate potential treatments, first use the arrow keys to move the highlighted bar to Treatment Selection on the main menu and press <ENTER>. Consult should then be highlighted in the submenu. Press <ENTER> to select Consult and begin the process to develop a list of appropriate treatments. Consult will guide you through this process and ask you for information along the way. In Consult, survey and treatment dates are entered. These are used to determine the average grasshopper life stage in Consult as a factor for selecting certain treatments. Note that these dates are also used later in the economic analysis to simulate treatment effect on forage availability for livestock. After Consult has been used, the treatment list is available to be used for economic analysis. Economics is listed below Consult in the Treatment Selection submenu.

After you select the appropriate economic data file from Hopper’s list, Hopper presents onscreen data-entry forms that must be completed. You can accept all the default values except grasshopper density. Typically, of all the data requested by Hopper for the economic analysis, only grasshopper density needs to be entered. More experienced users may change treatment cost and efficacy on the Treatment form. There, scenarios for increasing swath width and the resulting decrease in cost and efficacy can be evaluated.

Once data are correct on an onscreen data-entry form, press <F5> to cause Hopper to continue to the next form or function. Most onscreen data-entry forms can just be bypassed by pressing <F5> to accept the displayed values when the form appears.

After all data have been entered, the analysis begins. Graphs of the forage and grasshopper simulations can be displayed and/or saved. The economic analysis uses results from the simulations to calculate the benefits and costs of each treatment. The final results can be saved and are also displayed on the screen. Experimenting (“gaming”) by changing some values, such as grasshopper density or treatment date, can be very useful and interesting.

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The Modules

Treatment Selection

Consult.—The first item in the Treatment Selection submenu is Consult (fig. VI.2–4). This is the expert system that selects treatments that are valid for a given situation. Select Consult by moving the highlighted bar to Consult and pressing <ENTER>. The program will ask you relevant questions about the situation and current conditions. Often, Consult presents several options on the screen. To select one of the options, use the cursor keys (arrow keys), or you can use a mouse and click once on the left mouse button to move the highlighted bar to the appropriate option. Press <ENTER> or click once on the left mouse button to make your selection and continue with the consultation (fig. VI.2–5). At times you may be asked for data that you will need to type in from the keyboard (e.g., dates). In these situations, you will not use the cursor keys to select an option. Instead, you will type your response (fig. VI.2–6).

Figure VI.2–4—Consult is highlighted and will be selected by pressing <Enter>.

Figure VI.2–5—Typical multiple-choice data entry in Consult.

Figure VI.2–6—Typical numeric entry in Consult.

First, Consult will require you to select weather data for your site unless you have already loaded weather data. The Weather submenu will open and present three items. The most common choice is to create a weather file for the site. Weather also allows existing files to be used or new files to be created in a spreadsheetlike editor. Once Hopper has weather data for the site, Hopper will present an option to load existing facts into memory. If you choose to load existing facts, Hopper will provide a list of available files from which to select. Hopper will take control and guide the treatment selection process. Just answer any questions that are asked. A second window (Current Value Window) at the bottom of the screen will display the information you have entered.

More explanation or help for a question being asked can be obtained by pressing <F1>. These explanations will help you make sure that your answers are appropriate for the way they will be used in the system (fig. VI.2–7).

Figure VI.2–7—While entering information in the Consult expert system, help and ancillary information can be displayed.

To change or delete a value (e.g., an incorrectly entered value), you can temporarily exit from the Treatment Selection Question Window by pressing <ESC>. The cursor will be placed in the Current Values Window (fig. VI.2–8). There you can see or delete (highlight the value then press <DEL>) any values you have entered. When you are ready to continue with Consult again, press <F5>. Only deleted values and any new information needed by the expert system must be entered during the new or continued run with Consult. This feature allows you to build treatment lists rapidly from different scenarios. To quit without selecting a treatment and return to the main menu, press <ESC> while the cursor is in the Current Values Window.

Figure VI.2–8—Screen used to delete data from Consult

Note: After Consult is finished, the information that was entered by you for treatment selection can be saved to a file. This information can later be retrieved when you begin Consult again, as previously described. When asked for a file name to save facts, only the filename (eight or fewer characters in length), without an extension, should be entered (e.g., FACT2).

Figure VI.2–9—Consult ends by displaying a list of treatments that can be analyzed in the Economics module..

When Consult is finished, a list of treatments with corresponding application dates will be displayed (fig. VI.2–9). In some situations, other information will be displayed to show the outcome of the consultation. You could delete some facts and press <F5> to run another scenario. When you press <F5> without deleting any facts, you will be returned to the Treatment Selection submenu. Hopper will retain in memory the list of treatments you obtained from Consult. This list will be used each time you select the Economics module until Consult is run with different data.

Explain.—The eXplain option tells you why Hopper selected or rejected treatments for a given consultation.

You may either:

1. View the explanation onscreen (Read)

Use <PageUp> and <PageDown> to move around the explanation. After reading the explanation, press <ESC> to return to the main menu.

2. Print the explanation (Print)

Follow the onscreen directions to print the explanation. See Setup for information on setting up your printer.

Economics.—Economics prompts you to enter economic and environmental data about the infested site. Then, Hopper runs the data through simulation models that provide an economic analysis of the treatments selected by Consult. By varying the data, you can evaluate the benefit–cost ratio of treatments for various scenarios. This allows you to determine

• Whether or not treatment is cost effective,
• Which treatment is most cost effective, and
• When to use the treatment for maximum effect.

The Economics module gives you access to a virtually unlimited number of scenarios for evaluating the economic robustness of the treatments that were selected by the Consult module (fig. VI.2–9). This flexibility and power come by using forage and grasshopper simulation models. The Economics module manages the models and the details of each simulation. Therefore, it is very easy for you to do the economic analyses. In fact, the only way a user even knows that models are being used is that a display indicates when a simulation is active.

After Economics is selected from the submenu, you must select an option to load economic data into Hopper (fig. VI.2–10). Information for the economic analysis is stored in files. The last information used by Hopper can be retrieved by selecting “Last Values.” Information for regional economic models provided with Hopper can be selected by choosing “Saved or Default Values.” In addition, any specific economic information you have saved can also be retrieved this way. Press <F1> for descriptions of the economic files. Usually, on the first run for a given area you will select the option for “Saved or Default Values” (existing data file). There are several data files that represent data typical for an area. For example, NGP_CC.ec3 represents a northern Great Plains cow–calf operation. There is also a generic model available for areas that do not have a specific model. These models use data files that have the extension .GN3 and can be used anywhere in North America. For a description of the economic models and data files currently available, see appendix B of this Users’ Guide or press <F1>.

Figure VI.2–10—With Economics selected, Hopper then prompts for economic parameters file to use.

Six data-entry windows are used to get information from you before the simulations are started. Help and explanation (press <F1>) are available for most parameters. See figure VI.2–11. These explanations should be read so that you will be able to enter correct information and understand the potential effects of a variable on the economic analyses. To change a value, use the arrow keys or <TAB> to move the highlight to the value. Type a new value or use <DEL> to edit the value. When you are finished entering information on an onscreen data-entry form, press <F5> to move to the next onscreen data-entry form.

Figure VI.2–11—Grasshopper and rangeland data entry with help information for peak standing crop displayed.

The first onscreen data-entry form (Forage and Grasshopper Models) is for information used to simulate forage growth and grasshopper population dynamics (fig. VI.2.– 12). Densities of grasshoppers that eat only grass and those that eat mixed vegetation and, occasionally, a forage-production multiplier should be entered. Remember to press <F1> for more explanation for each parameter (fig. VI.–11 shows a help screen). The rest of the values are reasonable estimates if you do not have better information. Press <F5> to continue when you are satisfied with the values that are displayed. Percent forbs is calculated by Hopper, based on cool- and warm-season grasses.

Figure VI.2–12—Grasshopper and rangeland onscreen data-entry form.

The second onscreen data-entry form (Treatment Cost) displays the list of treatments, with their costs and mortalities, selected by the Consult module (fig. VI.2–13). The total cost (material plus application cost) and mortality can be entered (press <ENTER> after typing each value) for each treatment except Nosema bait. Only cost can be entered for Nosema bait because mortality calculations are too complicated for most users. After all the costs have been entered correctly, press <F5> to accept your entries and continue to the next onscreen data-entry form.

Figure VI.2–13—Treatment cost and mortality onscreen data-entry form.

The third onscreen data-entry form allows you to indicate the potential for multiple-year benefit from control. Be sure to read the information on the screen (fig. VI.2–14). Multiple-year benefits are calculated only by compounding single-year benefits over the number of years you enter on this onscreen data-entry form. This is the last screen of data presented when a generic model is used.

Figure VI.2–14—Multiple-year onscreen data-entry form.

The fourth onscreen data-entry form (Hay Information) shows data used in the ranch economic model (fig. VI.2– 15). Press <F5> to continue when you are satisfied with the values that are displayed. Only change this information if you have data for a specific ranch or a ranch typical for the treatment block. The values provided by Hopper are for a typical ranch in the area.

Figure VI.2–15—Hay information onscreen data-entry form and livestock data display.

The fifth onscreen data-entry form (Herd Size) shows livestock data used in the ranch economic model (fig. VI.2–16). A land manager may choose to evaluate the effect of reduced herd size versus paying for grasshopper control. Press <F5> to continue when you are satisfied with the values that are displayed.

Figure VI.2–16—Livestock herd-size onscreen data-entry form. Yearlings and sheep are not in the model.

The sixth onscreen data-entry form (Lease Information) shows lease data used in the ranch economic model (fig. VI.2–17). Press <F5> to continue when you are satisfied with the values that are displayed. Only change this information if you have data for a specific ranch or a ranch typical for the treatment block. The values provided by Hopper are for a typical ranch in the area.

Figure VI.2–17—Range lease onscreen data-entry form.

Your last entered values for the economic analysis are saved automatically in a file called Last.ec3. Before the economic calculations begin, Hopper will ask if you would also like to save in a specific file the information just entered. You could reload and use this information later (fig. VI.2–10).

Then you will be asked if you want to continue with the economic analysis. This process can take several minutes on slow computers without math coprocessors. If N is entered, the economic analysis will end and the Treatment Selection menu will be displayed. If Y is entered, the economic analysis will proceed. The progress of the analysis can be monitored in a window in the center of the screen. You can view graphs after each treatment simulation. Then the ranch economic model will run. There is no user intervention required until the analyses are complete (fig. VI.2–18). (However, you can press <Ctrl-Break> to interrupt the economic analysis and return the Hopper menus.) The results are automatically saved in a file called Results.rpt. You will be asked if you would like to save this information in a specific file. Note: The Primal/Dual Degenerate Problem message should be ignored.

Figure VI.2–18—Working screen for the ranch economic model.

The results of a ranch economic analysis (not generic analysis) are displayed in a window (fig. VI.2–19). The top few lines describe some general results of the analyses. The yields from the simulations are dependent on the scenario you described (Forage and Grasshopper Parameters Window) and on the weather scenario. The yield with grasshoppers accounts only for grasshopper consumption since the survey date or date of average fourth instar, whichever is earlier. The acres to be treated are calculated from the total Animal Unit Months (AUM’s) grazed on the ranch, normal production of peak edible forage, and the proper use factor for each lease and total deeded land. [An AUM represents the average amount of forage consumed by one cow and one calf in 1 month—about 800 lb.] Therefore, the acres to be treated represent the total acres grazed by the ranch, except distant pastures on the Hay Information Screen (fig. VI.2–15). The eggs deposited per square yard is an estimate of the density of grasshopper eggs deposited by the end of October. The number of later instar grasshoppers that will be produced next year by these eggs depends on winter survival of the eggs and spring survival of the young instars.

Figure VI.2–19—Final results from the economic analysis.

The simulation results from the individual treatments (includes treatment mortality) and their corresponding application dates are listed in tabular form. The dollar return is total return for the ranch and is calculated from the value of an AUM (determined by the ranch economic model or entered by you in the case with the generic economic models), the cost of control, and the AUM’s gained from control.

In some situations, the monetary value of forage saved from a treatment does not justify the application of that treatment for short-term economic reasons. However, there may be carryover benefits for the coming year that cannot be quantified economically. For example, the number of eggs deposited may be reduced, possibly preventing continued high densities of grasshoppers during the next growing season. Eggs deposited per square yard are shown for each treatment in the last column. These densities can be compared to the densities simulated for the untreated grasshopper populations (shown at the top of the window). In this way, relative effectiveness of the treatments (and application dates) for reducing next year’s potential population can be evaluated. The return is the gain for the ranch if the treatment is applied. Cost is the total cost to treat the ranch (all AUM’s on the lease data-entry form, fig. VI.2–17). The benefit–cost ratio (BC) shows if the benefit is greater than the cost (BC > 1.0). Two BC’s are displayed. The first is for a single year. The second is combined for a single year plus the number of subsequent years shown. In the example, figure VI.2–20 shows the current year and 2 subsequent years. Although Hopper provides for benefits to be calculated for up to 10 years, 4 or 5 years is more realistic. See Help <F1> for additional information about multiple-year benefits. If current BC (single-year) is less than 1.0, the treatment may still be cost effective if you think you will get as much benefit in subsequent years (multiple-year effects BC).

Figure VI.2–20—Final results from the generic economic analysis.

The results from a generic economic analysis are very similar to the results from the ranch models. A difference to note is the acres to be treated. The generic analysis always shows 1.0 acre, whereas the ranch models show the number of treated acres associated with a ranch. The cost and return for the generic model are also for 1.0 acre, not for an entire ranch. In addition, the forage model is not used by the generic model. Therefore, yield is the normal peak edible forage production times the forage production multiplier minus the estimated forage consumption by grasshoppers (from the grasshopper model). In other words, the generic model calculates potential forage consumption by grasshoppers, but the ranch models calculate yield based on the interaction of forage growth with concurrent grasshopper forage consumption.

Hopper’s recommendations are derived from the best scientific and field data available (including your own responses). However, remember that there is great variability in any biological system. Also, future events, such as drought or changes in the cattle market, cannot be quantified accurately and are not included here. Therefore, you should evaluate the strength of your decision by running Hopper and changing some of the values you enter. For example, decrease the grasshopper density by 20 percent. If BC is greater than 1.0 (assuming it was greater than 1.0 in the first run), then you can have greater confidence in the decision to use the specified treatment. However, if BC drops below 1.0, you should suspect that a decision to use the given treatment is not very robust (not a decision that can be made with much confidence). Gaming with the program in this way can be very informative and is one of the strengths of using computer models.

Weather.—Hopper uses simulation models to predict forage production and grasshopper phenology and oviposition. These models use temperature and precipitation information to make the predictions as accurate as possible. The Weather module allows you to retrieve, modify, and save temperature data that are used by Hopper. Currently, precipitation and temperature are generated and stored in a file. Both can be edited or updated for each day of the year in the Temperature Editor provided in the Weather module.

Figure VI.2–21—Weather generator submenu to select the weather station nearest your site.

You can create average weather (using the weather generator provided with your copy of Hopper, fig. VI.2–21) or provide your own weather files. The files may have any filename but must have .WTR as the file extension (e.g., mytemps.wtr). For example, mytemps.wtr might look like this:

Column 1 is day of the year (where 1 is January 1, 365 is December 31), column 2 is maximum temperature (°F), column 3 is minimum temperature (°F), and column 4 is precipitation (inches). Incomplete data sets are accepted (whole days can be missing). There must be at least one space between each column. In the Northern States, Hopper uses temperatures from April 1 through October 8. Make sure you have good data for these dates before running the Consult or Economics modules.

A spreadsheetlike Weather Editor is provided to allow you to edit temperatures and precipitation from several sources (average from sites in your area, created by the weather generator; weather files that you have previously edited or assembled using a text editor; or temperature data that are currently loaded into Hopper). Often you may want to evaluate the effect of generally warmer, cooler, wetter, or dryer conditions. The Weather Editor allows you to increase or decrease temperatures or precipitation for the entire year all at once. When you are finished editing, you may press <F5> to update the current temperatures in Hopper and, optionally, to save your changes to a file on the disk. Any file you save may be reloaded later for use by Hopper and/or more editing.

Print/View Files

Graphs.—The Graphs option will allow you to print any graphs that were saved during an economic analysis. Note that your graphics printer must have been configured correctly at the time the graphs were created. Your graph will not print correctly if it was created for a printer different than the one you would like to use to print the graph (see Setup for more information on graphics printer setup, page VI.2–16).

Reports.—All of the information needed to duplicate a scenario is stored in Hopper’s reports. The Reports option includes information entered in the Consult module and the Economics module and identity of the source of weather data. Hopper always saves the last run in the file results.rpt, even if you declined to save the results when prompted in the Economics module. Print Reports will display any report file on the screen or print it to the current printer (see Setup for more information on text printer setup, page VI.2–16).

Forms.—You can create hard-copy data-entry forms that you can use to collect input data for Hopper. The forms contain default values from Hopper or values from any data you have saved during an economic analysis. These files have the ending .ec3. You can view the forms on the screen or print them. To create a form, see Forms in the Tools section, page VI.2–16.

Tools

Tutorial.—An automated Tutorial will show you a typical run through Hopper. After you modify some of the data files that arrived with Hopper, the tutorial may not run correctly. This problem happens because Hopper may require a different response based on the data that are entered. The tutorial cannot adjust to these changes in advance.

SimHop.—SimHop will simulate the general pattern of grasshopper development, forage consumption, and treatment mortality. This is useful for teaching or explaining why it may be too late or too early in the year to treat. The effects of long-lasting (long residual) treatments and timing of treatments can be demonstrated. Text and graphics are used to show the results (fig. VI.–22).

Figure VI.2–22—SimHop graphics display screen during a simulation beginning before egg hatch.

There are two modes of operation. First, a grasshopper population can be simulated from before spring egg hatch (preseason) to the end of season (fig. VI.2–23). You can set the timing, length and size of the hatch period. Second, SimHop can begin after egg hatch (midseason). In this case you can specify the density of each instar and starting date of the simulation (fig. VI.2–24). For each type of simulation, you can set the timing, length, and total mortality for a treatment. Therefore, via simulation, you can compare results of a slow-acting biological control applied early to results of a short-residual, fast-acting chemical spray applied later.

Figure VI.2–23—Postegg-hatch onscreen data-entry form for SimHop.

Figure VI.2–24—Pre-egg-hatch onscreen data-entry form for SimHop.

You can change between the prehatch model and the posthatch model by entering Y or N in the first field. The data-entry screen will switch so you can enter data for the model you chose. The last value on the screen is to slow the simulation so that the graph and data can be viewed in more detail. Press <F1> for more information on any current data value (where the cursor is flashing). Change any information on the screen; then press <F5> to run the simulation.

While SimHop is running, control keys in the lower right corner of the simulation results screen (fig. VI.2–22) can be used to slow, stop, reverse, or increment (step by step) the simulation. The layout of these keys represents the numeric keypad to the right on the computer keyboard. To use the numeric keypad during Simhop, turn off the Num-Lock. You could stop a simulation by pressing <SpaceBar> and then reverse the simulation by pressing the numeric keypad “4.” <SpaceBar> will start and stop a simulation.

This tabulation explains the definitions of 1–9 on the numeric keypad:

The consumption rates used in SimHop are based on laboratory measurement for Melanoplus sanguinipes. Therefore, SimHop should be used to help with general understanding of grasshopper population dynamics, not to make precise estimates of forage loss.

Maps.—Maps allows you to select and view grasshopper hazard maps for several States. To select a State, move the highlighted bar to the State desired and press <ENTER>. When you are finished viewing the map, press <ENTER> to continue. To exit the Maps module, press <ESC> at the State selection submenu.

Economic Threshold.—Hopper can estimate the density of grasshoppers for a specified BC ratio. This estimate is also dependent on grasshopper life stage and species composition and current economic variables. The grasshopper density that corresponds to the BC ratio can be considered an economic threshold. In some situations, you might specify a BC ratio that cannot be achieved— one that is either too high or too low. Hopper will inform you when this situation occurs.

The Economic Threshold calculator will first run Consult to develop a list of treatments and then allow you to select one of those treatments and enter a BC ratio. Remember that BC ratios greater than 1.0 indicate a treatment profit for the single-year analysis. Next, an economic analysis will begin similar to the analysis in the Treatment Selection module. Generic models cannot be used for the Economic Threshold calculator. You can enter or modify any of the data to match your situation.

Hopper will run the analysis several times to find the economic threshold. This may take 3 minutes on a 486 computer. However, no intervention is required until the final results are presented. Results can be saved to a report file.

Forms.—You can create and print hard-copy data-entry forms that you can use to collect input data for Hopper. The forms will contain default values from Hopper or values from any data you have saved during an economic analysis. These can be a handy way to prepare to run Hopper because you will have at hand all the information Hopper requests. Select Forms and a submenu of items will be presented. You can create, view, or print a form. When you select “Create,” a list of economic data files in your Hopper directory is displayed. These files have the ending .ec3. Highlight a file and press <ENTER> to create the form for those data. Next, you could view the new form on the screen or print it.

Setup

Printers.—Hopper uses the printer type (text and graphics) you select here to format properly the documents it prints. The printer information is stored in a file. Therefore, you need only select a printer once, unless you change printers. Select both a text printer and a graphics printer.

Text Printers.—Hopper will print existing reports and information in eXplain to your text printer. With Text Printers highlighted on the menu, press <ENTER> and a list of printers will appear (fig. VI.2–25). Use the arrow keys to highlight your text printer (or a similar model). If your printer is not listed, check to see if it is compatible with any other printers listed. The Epson printer is very common, and many printers are compatible with it. If your actual printer-model is not listed in Hopper, try selecting Epson instead. The text printer and graphics printer are often the same. However, you need to set up both types of printers in Hopper if the default printers are not acceptable. The text printer must be connected to a printer port (e.g., LPT). If your printer is connected to a COM port, you can place a Mode command in the file autoexec.bat to route the printer data through LPT1. For example, if your printer is attached to the serial port COM1, you should place this line in the autoexec.bat file: